- Researchers surveyed 352 machine learning experts to forecast AI progress
- They say there’s a 50% chance AI will outperform humans in all tasks in 45 years
- And, they they also found a 50% chance machines will take all jobs in 120 years
- AI will outperform humans at translation, truck driving, essay writing in 10 yr
In less than 50 years, artificial intelligence will be able to beat humans at all of their own tasks, according to a new study.
And, the first hints of this shift will become apparent much sooner.
Within the next ten years alone, the researchers found AI will outperform humans in language translation, truck driving, and even writing high-school essays – and, they say machines could be writing bestselling books by 2049.
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In less than 50 years, artificial intelligence will be able to beat humans at all of their own tasks, according to a new study. And, the first hints of this shift will become apparent much sooner. A stock image is pictured
In a new study, researchers from Oxford University’s Future of Humanity Institute, Yale University, and AI Impacts surveyed 352 machine learning experts to forecast the progress of AI in the next few decades.
The experts were asked about the timing of specific capabilities and occupations, as well as their predictions on when AI will become superior over humans in all tasks – and what the social implications of this might be.
The researchers predicted that machines will be better than humans at translating languages by 2024, writing high-school essays by 2026, driving a truck by 2027, and working in retail by 2031.
By 2049, they’ll be able to write a bestseller, and by 2053, they’ll be working as surgeons, they said.
According to the researchers, there’s a 50 percent chance artificial intelligence will outperform humans in all tasks in just 45 years.
And, by the same likelihood, they say machines could take over all human jobs in 120 years.
Some said this could even happen sooner.
JOBS THAT PAY LESS THAN $20 ARE AT RISK OF ROBOT TAKEOVER
There is an 83 percent chance that artificial intelligence will eventually takeover positions that pay low-wages, says White House’s Council of Economic Advisors (CEA).
A recent report suggests that those who are paid less than $20 an hour will be unemployed and see their jobs filled by robots over the next few years.
But for workers who earn more than $20 an hour there is only a 31 percent chance and those paid double have just a 4 percent risk.
To reach these numbers the CEA’s 2016 economic report referred to a 2013 study about the ‘automation of jobs performed by Oxford researchers that assigned a risk of automation to 702 different occupations’.
Those jobs were then matched to a wage that determines the worker’s risk of having their jobs taken over by a robot.
‘The median probability of automation was then calculated for three ranges of hourly wage: less than 20 dollars; 20 to 40 dollars; and more than 40 dollars,’ reads the report.
The risk of having your job taken over by a robot, Council of Economic Advisers Chairman Jason Furman told reporters that it ‘varies enormously based on what your salary is.’
Furman also noted that the threat of robots moving in on low-wage jobs is, ‘another example of why those investments in education to make sure that people have skills that complements automation are so important,’ referring to programs advocated by President Obama.
Artificial intelligence is fast improving its capabilities, and has increasingly proven itself in historically human-dominated fields.
The Google-owned algorithm AlphaGo, for example, just recently defeated the world’s top player in the ancient Chinese game Go, sweeping a three-game series.
After outperforming humans on numerous occasions, the algorithm – which has been anointed the new ‘Go god’ – is now retiring.
While AI is expected to benefit society in many ways, the researchers also say machines will present a new set of challenges.
‘Advances in artificial intelligence will have massive social consequences,’ the authors wrote.
Artificial intelligence is fast improving its capabilities, and has increasingly proven itself in historically human-dominated fields. The experts were asked about the timing of specific capabilities and occupations. A stock image is pictured
‘Self-driving technology might replace millions of driving jobs over the coming decade.
‘In addition to possible unemployment, the transition will bring new challenges, such as rebuilding infrastructure, protecting vehicle cyber-security, and adapting laws and regulations.
‘New challenges, both for AI developers and policy-makers, will also arise from applications in law enforcement, military technology, and marketing.’
The news isn’t all bad, though.
In the survey, the researchers also determined the probability of an ‘extremely bad’ outcome, like human extinction as a result of AI, is only 5 percent.